September 2026 Fed Meeting: September 15–16
The official FOMC schedule, post-July policy baseline, five verified rate-change markets, data calendar, and resolution guide.
Published July 17, 2026 · Substantially updated August 3, 2026 · Meeting: September 15–16, 2026 · Next planned refresh: August 12, 2026
The answer first
The September 2026 Fed meeting is scheduled for Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15–16. It is marked with an asterisk on the Federal Reserve calendar, meaning the meeting is associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. The official baseline entering this cycle is the July 29 decision: the FOMC voted 9–3 to keep the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%, while three members preferred a 25-basis-point increase. An exact Polymarket event for the September decision was active and open in the August 3 check, with five possible change buckets. The September result is unknown. This guide does not freeze fast-moving prices or predict the decision; it maps the dated evidence, market structure, and rule details that control what each contract asks.
What changed after the July 29 FOMC decision
The target range stayed at 3.50%–3.75%
The Committee maintained the target range for the federal funds rate and said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace while inflation remained elevated relative to its 2% goal. This is the official starting level for the next scheduled policy cycle unless an intervening action changes it.
The vote was 9–3
Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan voted against the action because they preferred a 25-basis-point increase. The dissents document disagreement at the July meeting; they do not determine how any participant will vote in September.
An exact September market is now verifiable
The earlier version of this page had only an annual cut-count market for context. The August 3 review confirmed a separate event titled Fed Decision in September? with five meeting-specific outcome contracts, so the canonical page can now explain the actual September resolution surface.
The data path is dateable
BLS and BEA calendars now provide a sequence of employment, inflation, productivity, and personal-income releases between the July and September meetings. These are research checkpoints, not mechanical predictors of the decision.
September FOMC timeline: official checkpoints
The Committee maintained the 3.50%–3.75% target range by a 9–3 vote. The statement, rather than commentary about it, establishes the post-July policy baseline.
The BLS schedule lists the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey at 10:00 a.m. ET. Openings, hires, quits, and revisions describe labor demand but are not the same measure as payroll growth.
The BLS reported nonfarm payroll employment down 23,000 and the unemployment rate at 4.1%. Temporary layoffs rose by 153,000. Labor-force participation was 61.4%. The weak payrolls print adds a new data point to the September policy picture. The 2026 jobs report calendar tracks the full release schedule.
The BLS schedules headline and core consumer-price data for 8:30 a.m. ET. The 2026 CPI release-date guide separates month-over-month, year-over-year, headline, and core measures.
The Producer Price Index is scheduled for 8:30 a.m. ET. It measures a different price surface from CPI and should not be substituted for the metric named in another contract.
BEA schedules the release for 8:30 a.m. ET. It includes personal consumption expenditure data and arrives after the first August employment and CPI wave.
JOLTS is scheduled for September 1 at 10:00 a.m. ET; the Employment Situation follows September 4 at 8:30 a.m. ET. The second payroll report is the final scheduled employment report before the meeting.
PPI is scheduled for September 10 and CPI for September 11, both at 8:30 a.m. ET. This is the final listed inflation wave before the two-day meeting.
The official calendar confirms the dates and marks the meeting as associated with a Summary of Economic Projections. The market rules name the FOMC statement as the primary resolution source.
This later meeting matters only for contracts whose fallback or end-date language reaches beyond September. The reviewed September event says what happens if no relevant statement is released by the end of that next scheduled meeting.
Calendar caution: agency schedules can change. Recheck the Federal Reserve, BLS, and BEA pages before using any date operationally; this page records the schedules verified on August 3, 2026.
Verified September Polymarket event and demand evidence
The exact Gamma event Fed Decision in September? was checked on August 8, 2026 at 14:01 UTC. It was active, not closed, and accepting orders across all five component contracts. The top-level event showed approximately $19.75 million in cumulative volume, $2.60 million in liquidity, and $1.93 million in 24-hour volume — up sharply from $11.81 million in volume and $1.10 million in 24-hour volume when this page was last updated on August 3. That clears the project's pilot demand floor by a wide margin and supports refreshing this existing canonical rather than creating another Fed URL.
Those figures describe activity and market depth at one timestamp; they do not establish forecast accuracy. Outcome prices are deliberately omitted because they can change between a crawl and a reader's visit. Anyone researching the current board should open the source event, record bid and ask rather than only the last trade, and timestamp the observation.
50+ bps decrease
A meeting-specific contract for a decrease of at least 50 basis points in the upper bound of the target range.
25 bps decrease
The listed decrease bucket for a 25-basis-point move under the event's rounding rule.
No change
The bucket for an unchanged upper bound after the September decision, including the event's stated no-statement fallback.
25 bps increase
The listed increase bucket for a 25-basis-point move under the same measurement convention.
50+ bps increase
A meeting-specific contract for an increase of at least 50 basis points in the upper bound.
The five labels form the event inventory, but each visible market is still a yes/no contract with its own order book. Compare the full board, spreads, and depth instead of interpreting one last-traded price in isolation. The prediction-market odds explainer and risk-management guide cover the difference between a displayed price, an executable quote, and a settled outcome.
How the September Fed market resolves
1. The measured rate is the upper bound
The reviewed wording defines the Fed interest rate as the upper bound of the target federal funds range. Do not substitute the midpoint, lower bound, effective federal funds rate, or a futures-implied rate.
2. The comparison is meeting-specific
The event measures how much that upper bound changes versus its level before the September 2026 meeting. It is not a full-year count of moves.
3. The written buckets control
The displayed outcomes are 50+ down, 25 down, no change, 25 up, and 50+ up. A reader should verify that these labels and the description remain unchanged before relying on them.
4. Unlisted moves are rounded up
The event says a change not expressed in the options is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points; its example treats a 12.5-basis-point move as 25 basis points. This wording matters for an unusual increment.
5. The FOMC statement is primary
The resolution source named in the event is the FOMC statement following the September 15–16 meeting. The Federal Reserve's target-rate history is also cited.
6. Resolution may occur when the statement appears
The event may resolve once the September statement provides the relevant data. Commentary, a press report, or a prediction-market price is not the named official source.
7. The fallback reaches the next meeting
If no relevant statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, the reviewed event says it resolves to the no-change bracket. That edge case should not be omitted from a scenario map.
8. Do not import annual-market rules
The separate 2026 cut-count event explicitly counts emergency moves and 25-basis-point equivalents. The September event has its own meeting-specific wording, so its rulebook must be read independently.
The completed June 2026 Fed market archive shows why resolution and a pre-event probability are different states. A contract closing at $1.00 after settlement does not mean the outcome had been certain before the decision.
Why search and market attention should rise
Wave 1 · Post-July baseline + weak payrolls
The July 29 statement established a 3.50%–3.75% range with a three-member dissent. The August 7 payrolls print (-23,000) added a material weak-jobs signal. Polymarket volume has surged to $19.75 million, confirming rising attention to the September decision.
Wave 2 · August data sequence
Jobs, CPI, PPI, personal income, and outlays create separate moments when readers search for the next Fed date and compare policy scenarios. Each release can also generate revisions or rule-reading questions.
Wave 3 · Early September
The second jobs report, final CPI/PPI wave, projection-associated meeting, and growing contract volume should concentrate date-first and outcome-specific demand during the last two weeks.
This 39-day refresh horizon is early enough for recrawl before the final demand wave. It also avoids a new URL that would compete with the established canonical. The evergreen Fed rate prediction-market guide owns the general “how to read FOMC probabilities” intent; this page owns the dated September 15–16 event intent.
A repeatable research workflow
Start with exact wording
Save the event title, all five outcome labels, measured rate, baseline convention, rounding rule, source order, fallback, and timestamp before looking at prices.
Maintain a dated evidence log
Record official releases and later revisions separately. A revised payroll or inflation figure should not silently replace what participants knew at the earlier timestamp.
Capture executable context
For every market observation, note best bid, best ask, spread, depth, volume, and time. A last trade by itself is not a complete probability estimate.
Compare institutions carefully
The September ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, and Bank of Canada guides cover different dates, rates, committees, and contract wording. One decision does not mechanically imply another.
Separate observation from forecast
Label official facts, market data, and interpretation. The existence of volume or a dissent does not prove which September bucket will resolve true.
Recheck before the catalyst
Confirm the calendar, statement link, market status, and rules after each material data release and again 7–14 days before September 16.
Frequently asked questions
When is the September 2026 Fed meeting?
The Federal Reserve calendar schedules the FOMC meeting for Tuesday and Wednesday, September 15–16, 2026. The asterisk on the calendar means the meeting is associated with a Summary of Economic Projections.
What did the Fed decide on July 29, 2026?
The FOMC voted 9–3 to maintain the federal funds target range at 3.50%–3.75%. Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan dissented because they preferred a 25-basis-point increase. That is the official baseline entering the September cycle, not a forecast of the next decision.
Is there an active Polymarket Fed decision market for September 2026?
Yes. The exact September event checked August 8, 2026 at 14:01 UTC was active, open, and accepting orders across five rate-change contracts. It showed about $19.75 million in cumulative volume, $2.60 million in liquidity, and $1.93 million in 24-hour volume — up sharply from $11.81 million in volume on August 3. Prices are intentionally omitted because they move quickly.
What outcomes are in the September 2026 Fed market?
The reviewed event has five outcome contracts: a decrease of at least 50 basis points, a 25-basis-point decrease, no change, a 25-basis-point increase, and an increase of at least 50 basis points.
How does the September Fed decision market resolve?
The reviewed rules measure the change in the upper bound of the federal funds target range versus its level before the September meeting. The FOMC statement is the named primary source; an unlisted change is rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points under the event wording.
What data is scheduled before the September 2026 FOMC meeting?
The August 7 Employment Situation has been released (payrolls -23,000, unemployment 4.1%). Remaining key releases include the August 12 CPI, August 13 PPI, August 26 Personal Income and Outlays, September 1 JOLTS, September 4 Employment Situation, and September 10–11 PPI and CPI. Each date should still be rechecked with the publishing agency.
When will this September 2026 Fed meeting guide be refreshed?
The next planned refresh is August 24, 2026, with an interim check after the August 12 CPI release. An earlier review will follow any material change to the official calendar, policy baseline, market status, or written resolution rules.
Sources and methodology
- Federal Reserve: FOMC calendars — official July 28–29, September 15–16, and October 27–28 dates; projection marker; minutes-release convention; checked August 3, 2026.
- Federal Reserve: July 29, 2026 FOMC statement — 3.50%–3.75% target range, 9–3 vote, named dissents, and statement language; checked August 3.
- BLS: Schedule of Selected Releases 2026 — August and September JOLTS, productivity, employment, CPI, PPI, and import/export-price dates; checked August 3.
- BLS: Employment Situation schedule and CPI schedule — reference months, exact dates, and 8:30 a.m. ET release times; checked August 3.
- BEA: News release schedule — August 26 Personal Income and Outlays date and time; checked August 3.
- Polymarket Gamma API: Fed Decision in September? — active status, five markets, rule text, volume, liquidity, and 24-hour volume; checked August 8 at 14:01 UTC.
- Polymarket: September Fed decision event — public event surface; prices should be checked live and timestamped.
- BLS: Employment Situation — July 2026 — nonfarm payroll employment -23,000; unemployment rate 4.1%; temporary layoffs +153,000; labor-force participation 61.4%; released August 7, 2026.
- Planning review covered all records in
posts.json, the complete article HTML archive, all 19 event hubs, the full sitemap, structured proactive queue, latest GSC snapshot/watchlist, and current-day publisher state before this canonical refresh.