Polymarket Fed June 2026 Odds: 99% No-Change Snapshot

Name: Polymarket Fed June 2026 Odds: 99% No-Change Snapshot
Start: 2026-06-17T18:00:00Z

Quick Answer

Polymarket Fed June 2026 odds currently price no change as the dominant outcome. The current Gamma API snapshot shows no change near 99.1%, a 25 bps cut near 0.4%, a 50+ bps cut near 0.1%, a 25 bps hike near 0.5%, and a 50+ bps hike near 0.1%. The event has about $2.38M in 24-hour volume.

Read each price as an implied probability, then check spread and depth before treating it as tradable.
The official FOMC meeting runs June 16-17, 2026; the policy statement is expected on June 17 at 14:00 ET.
The chair press conference at 14:30 ET is the main forward-guidance volatility window.
Snapshot source: Polymarket Gamma API, refreshed 2026-06-09 16:29 UTC.

💹 Live Polymarket Odds

Real-time prices from Polymarket. Updated every 30 seconds. Open any market to inspect rules, spread, and depth on Polymarket.

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24h Odds Movement

Fed Odds Research Workflow

Start with the no-change YES price near 99.1%; that is the baseline the market is asking new information to beat.
Watch the June 11 CPI print and liquidity changes before the June 16-17 meeting. Thin markets can move without a durable probability change.
Use the Polymarket profit calculator to translate a price into win-case upside, lose-case downside, and expected value before sizing any idea.
Use the biggest movers watchlist to see whether Fed odds are moving with broader macro or geopolitical markets.
Confirm the official schedule on the Federal Reserve FOMC calendar.

🗓️ Event Timeline

May 13, 2026

April CPI data released — last major inflation print before the June meeting.

Jun 6, 2026

May nonfarm payrolls — labor market signal Fed officials cite when sizing the next move.

Jun 11, 2026

May CPI release — final inflation reading inside the FOMC blackout window.

Jun 16, 2026

FOMC meeting begins. Two-day session opens; no public commentary during blackout.

Jun 17, 2026 · 14:00 ET

Rate decision and updated Summary of Economic Projections (SEP / dot plot) released.

Jun 17, 2026 · 14:30 ET

Chair press conference — biggest intra-meeting source of forward-guidance volatility.

Fed Odds FAQ

What are the Polymarket Fed June 2026 odds?

The live hub tracks Polymarket markets for the June 2026 FOMC decision, including no change, a 25 bps cut, a 50+ bps cut, a 25 bps hike, and a 50+ bps hike. The June 9 snapshot prices no change near 99.1%; the visible prices are market-implied probabilities, not guarantees.

How do I read Fed rate odds on Polymarket?

A YES share around 0.95 implies the market is pricing about a 95 percent chance for that outcome before spread and liquidity. Always check the order book, resolution rules, and event source before treating the price as tradable.

When is the June 2026 FOMC decision?

The official FOMC meeting runs June 16-17, 2026. The policy statement is expected on June 17, 2026 at 14:00 ET, followed by the chair press conference at 14:30 ET. The live hub keeps the countdown, timeline, and related Polymarket links in one place.

Live event hub for educational purposes. Not financial advice.
Odds powered by Polymarket Gamma API.

Polymarket Fed June 2026 Odds